March 14th, 2005
Kicking the Hornet's Nest
Who hasn't been thrilled to death to see large numbers of
Lebanese come out against Syrian control of their country? The
rest of the Lebanese, apparently: no sooner had President Bush
lauded the sight of thousands of people voting with their feet
than hundreds of thousands with a different view did the exact
same thing.
Of course, there's a good chance the massive counter-protest
was phoned in from Damascus, and a lot of the people there were
doing so under threat. But while there's always a question as
to whether Hezbollah is acting on Syria's behalf, or following
their own agenda, there's no question that they have the numbers
to back them up - big time.
Maybe next time Bush will learn to try some reverse psychology
and condemn anything he wants to see continue. If he announced
"Darn you, Assad, stay in Lebanon!" then the
Syrians might wonder what he was planning, and start inching
for the border just to be safe...
But putting all cynicism aside, it is a good thing
to see massive protests against the Syrian occupation. Their
army's been there far too long, and they're not up to any good.
The sooner they get back across their border - and help stop
insurgents from crossing into Iraq, provided they'd care to -
the better.
Of course, the Left is giving President Bush no real, direct
credit for the so-called "Cedar Revolution," much to
the chagrin of the armchair culture-warriors of the Use-America
Right. It's almost as if they wanted to be invited to a party
- or be made a high-ranking minister in the new government, just
like Ahmed Chalabi.
But while I'm sure that the toppling of Saddam Hussein has
made Assad rethink his own position, and made him more cooperative
- at least on the surface - the true flashpoint for the movement
came as a result of Rafik Hariri's death. So, in order to give
the President direct credit, we would have to accuse him of being
behind the bomb that killed Rafik in the first place.
While there's probably no shortage of people on the loonier
fringes of the Left who would be happy to point that finger,
I highly doubt it. But in a way, the accusation is right on target:
Hariri's death can be directly attributed to our invasion of
Iraq, much in the same way that every kidnapping and beheading,
car bomb and other, "complimentary" act of Terror that's
happened in the region since then.
Put simply, by invading we stirred up a massive hornet's nest
that was just waiting for us to show our faces underneath it.
We've reaped a wealth of stings and bites ever since, and the
hornets are moving far afield in search of new targets.
Case in point: the group that has claimed responsibility for
Hariri's death, the "Group for Advocacy and Holy War in
the Levant "- *whew!* - seems to have popped up out
of nowhere. Would we be hearing from them at all minus our invasion?
Somehow I doubt it, and I have to wonder how many more Jihadist
groups are going to spring up out of "nowhere" to vex
us...
Unfortunately, you can't say things like this, because it's
super-bad treason to even think it. "We have to support
our troops," say the people at the thinktanks and websites
who are mysteriously nowhere near the front lines.
After all, Saddam Hussein is no longer in power, plotting
to attack us with his massive stockpiles of invisible WMDs, or
making secret deals with terrorist organizations that wanted
him dead, too. He will no longer be torturing or killing Iraqis
who express views contrary to official opinion, either - that
particular task has been delegated to the interim
government, with the occasional bad apple in uniform taking
the initiative to help out.
But in spite of all these positive developments, I say there's
still ample room for meaningful criticism. By invading, we turned
a manageable situation - Saddam Hussein's Iraq, under our thumb
since 1991 - into a real mess, giving the bastards both cause
AND opportunity. And more chaos has shaken out of the nest to
keep our in-Iraq troubles company.
Of course, there's opportunity in chaos. But chaos has to
be carefully shepherded - there is no "managing" it
- if you want the end result to be anything you'd want to take
credit for. And will the Bush II Administration be happy to say
that they "took credit" for Hezbollah coming to power
in post-occupation Lebanon?
In the end, I have to applaud the Cedar Revolution. But it
would be a good idea for everyone sitting on the sidelines -
or coordinating the chaos from the beltway - to remember that
there's more than one kind of tree in Lebanon. And some of them
like to set themselves on fire.
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